# Serial Correlation in Data 

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Are the future values driven by the past values?

Can we look at past values to predict future values?

**need to use the right kind of analysis**

## Regression Result Intrepretation

Look at X value

It has a **positive** and **statistically signficant** relationship with future values 

**WHEN**

The *#T-stat is greater than 1.5* and the *#P-value is less than 0.1*.

This can be confirmed by looking at the coefficient for the X variable. If it is small (say 0.002), then that means a rise of 1 in the target value leads to only a 0.002 rise in the x value.

This tells us there's correlation, but doesn't give us the tool to figure out how to predict future values.